3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jordan Leggett (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #202 (range #169-#235, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jeff Heuerman (Starter), C.J. Uzomah (Contributor), Maxx Williams (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is C.J. Uzomah (Contributor). Drafted #150 by NYJ in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #76 and the model won't take him before #202 — a 126-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Evan Engram (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #48 (range #16-#80, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Malcolm Johnson (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise), Maxx Williams (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Malcolm Johnson (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #48 sits within 8 spots of the room's #40 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Bucky Hodges (age 21.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #85 (range #52-#118, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 66% — scary. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Geoff Swaim (Starter), Jesse James (Franchise), Nick Boyle (Starter). Ceiling is Jesse James (Franchise); floor is Geoff Swaim (Starter). Drafted #201 by MIN in 2017 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 14 spots below the room's consensus #71 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.