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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
JB
Jayon Brown
LB · UCLA
22.2 yo · — · —
EL
Elijah Lee
LB · Kansas St.
21.2 yo · — · —
MM
Matt Milano
LB · Boston Col.
22.7 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jayon Brown
Predicted pick
#131
range #96–#166
Bust probability
7%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Elijah Lee
Predicted pick
#124
range #122–#126
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Matt Milano
Predicted pick
#75
range #33–#117
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jayon Brown· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Elijah Lee· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Matt Milano· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJayon Brown0
  • AthleticismJayon Brown36
  • AgeElijah Lee94
  • ConsensusMatt Milano8
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jayon Brown50
  • Breakout ageJayon Brown50
  • WorkloadJayon Brown100
  • RAS × productionJayon Brown31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jayon Brown
  • Nate Orchard
    EDGE · #51
    Franchise
  • Shaquille Riddick
    EDGE · #158
    TBD
  • Bud Dupree
    OLB · #22
    Franchise
  • Martrell Spaight
    OLB · #141
    Contributor
  • Randy Gregory
    OLB · #60
    Starter
Elijah Lee
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Matt Milano
  • Benardrick McKinney
    ILB · #43
    Franchise
  • Brian Mihalik
    EDGE · #237
    Bust
  • David Mayo
    LB · #169
    Contributor
  • Max Valles
    OLB · #179
    TBD
  • Tyeler Davison
    DT · #154
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jayon Brown
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #437; model has him #131 — a 306-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Nate Orchard, Bud Dupree, Randy Gregory. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Elijah Lee
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #322; model has him #124 — a 198-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Matt Milano
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #229; model has him #75 — a 154-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Benardrick McKinney, Tyeler Davison.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jayon BrownElijah LeeMatt Milano· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jayon Brown

Draftanomics projects Jayon Brown (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #96-#166, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nate Orchard (Franchise), Shaquille Riddick, Bud Dupree (Franchise). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 306 spots ahead of the room (board #131 vs consensus #437), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Elijah Lee

Draftanomics projects Elijah Lee (age 21.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #124 (range #122-#126, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 198 spots ahead of the room (board #124 vs consensus #322), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Matt Milano

Draftanomics projects Matt Milano (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #33-#117, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Benardrick McKinney (Franchise), Brian Mihalik (Bust), David Mayo (Contributor). Ceiling is Benardrick McKinney (Franchise); floor is Max Valles. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 154 spots ahead of the room (board #75 vs consensus #229), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.