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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2017 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
JB
Jayon Brown
LB · UCLA
22.2 yo · — · —
EL
Elijah Lee
LB · Kansas St.
21.2 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Elijah Lee over Jayon Brown.

Decisive factor: a bust risk 19 points lower.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jayon Brown
Predicted pick
#131
range #101–#261
Bust probability
39%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Elijah Lee
Predicted pick
#124
range #94–#254
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jayon Brown· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Elijah Lee· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJayon Brown0
  • AthleticismJayon Brown36
  • AgeElijah Lee94
  • ConsensusElijah Lee6
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jayon Brown50
  • Breakout ageJayon Brown50
  • WorkloadJayon Brown100
  • RAS × productionJayon Brown31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Jayon Brown
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Elijah Lee
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jayon Brown
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Elijah Lee
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jayon BrownElijah Lee· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jayon Brown

−0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age; +0.02 charting coverage grade career avg

Elijah Lee

−0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.03 age; −0.03 charting yards per coverage snap career avg