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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
JM
Jeremy McNichols
RB · Boise St.
21.3 yo · 5'9" · 214 lb
MM
Marlon Mack
RB · South Florida
21.1 yo · 5'11" · 213 lb
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Marlon Mack over Jeremy McNichols.

Decisive factor: 35-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Jeremy McNichols
Predicted pick
#147
range #102–#192
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#130
on 3 boards
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$5Mmodel
Marlon Mack
Predicted pick
#112
range #83–#141
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#62
on 4 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Jeremy McNichols· RB / WR / TE
  • Marlon Mack· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionJeremy McNichols41
  • AthleticismJeremy McNichols51
  • AgeMarlon Mack86
  • ConsensusJeremy McNichols21
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Jeremy McNichols50
  • Breakout ageJeremy McNichols50
  • WorkloadJeremy McNichols100
  • RAS × productionJeremy McNichols50

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jay AjayiRB · Franchise→ shared byJeremy McNicholsMarlon Mack
  • Tevin ColemanRB · Franchise→ shared byJeremy McNicholsMarlon Mack
  • Josh RobinsonRB · Bust→ shared byJeremy McNicholsMarlon Mack
Jeremy McNichols
  • Jay Ajayishared
    RB · #149
    Franchise
  • Tevin Colemanshared
    RB · #73
    Franchise
  • Josh Robinsonshared
    RB · #205
    Bust
  • Melvin Gordon
    RB · #15
    Franchise
  • Ameer Abdullah
    RB · #54
    Franchise
Marlon Mack
  • David Cobb
    RB · #138
    Bust
  • Tevin Colemanshared
    RB · #73
    Franchise
  • Josh Robinsonshared
    RB · #205
    Bust
  • Jay Ajayishared
    RB · #149
    Franchise
  • Jeremy Langford
    RB · #106
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Jeremy McNichols
Risks
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.254 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    4 boards have him at mean rank #104; model has him #147 — a 43-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Jay Ajayi, Tevin Coleman, Melvin Gordon (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Marlon Mack
Risks
  • Comp group has bust risk
    2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history.
  • Negative per-play impact
    PPA avg_all 0.239 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    5 boards have him at mean rank #78; model has him #112 — a 34-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
  • Promising comp group
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Tevin Coleman, Jay Ajayi, Jeremy Langford.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Jeremy McNicholsMarlon Mack· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Jeremy McNichols

Draftanomics projects Jeremy McNichols (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #147 (range #102-#192, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jay Ajayi (Franchise), Tevin Coleman (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Melvin Gordon (Franchise); floor is Jay Ajayi (Franchise). Career trajectory in rushing yards: 159 → 1337 → 1709. Production rose every season — the kind of upward arc that often continues into the league. PPA avg_all 0.254 — per-snap contribution is below-average for the position. Volume stats overstate the impact. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #104 and the model won't take him before #147 — a 43-spot markdown. The discount is earned — negative per-play impact leads the case against.

Marlon Mack

Draftanomics projects Marlon Mack (age 21.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #112 (range #83-#141, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Tevin Coleman (Franchise), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Tevin Coleman (Franchise); floor is Jeremy Langford (Starter). School SP+ 9.8 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. 2 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: David Cobb, Josh Robinson. Mixed signal from history. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #78 and the model won't take him before #112 — a 34-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.