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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2017 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
ML
Marquel Lee
LB · Wake Forest
21.5 yo · — · —
MM
Matt Milano
LB · Boston Col.
22.7 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Matt Milano over Marquel Lee.

Decisive factor: 41-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $14M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marquel Lee
Predicted pick
#116
range #65–#167
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Matt Milano
Predicted pick
#75
range #33–#117
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Franchise
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$16Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marquel Lee· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Matt Milano· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarquel Lee55
  • AthleticismMarquel Lee36
  • AgeMarquel Lee94
  • ConsensusMatt Milano8
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marquel Lee50
  • Breakout ageMarquel Lee50
  • WorkloadMarquel Lee100
  • RAS × productionMarquel Lee31

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Benardrick McKinneyILB · Franchise→ shared byMarquel LeeMatt Milano
  • Tyeler DavisonDT · Franchise→ shared byMarquel LeeMatt Milano
  • David MayoLB · Contributor→ shared byMarquel LeeMatt Milano
  • Brian MihalikEDGE · Bust→ shared byMarquel LeeMatt Milano
Marquel Lee
  • Benardrick McKinneyshared
    ILB · #43
    Franchise
  • Preston Smith
    EDGE · #38
    Franchise
  • Tyeler Davisonshared
    DT · #154
    Franchise
  • David Mayoshared
    LB · #169
    Contributor
  • Brian Mihalikshared
    EDGE · #237
    Bust
Matt Milano
  • Benardrick McKinneyshared
    ILB · #43
    Franchise
  • Brian Mihalikshared
    EDGE · #237
    Bust
  • David Mayoshared
    LB · #169
    Contributor
  • Max Valles
    OLB · #179
    TBD
  • Tyeler Davisonshared
    DT · #154
    Franchise

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marquel Lee
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #268; model has him #116 — a 152-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Benardrick McKinney, Preston Smith, Tyeler Davison. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Matt Milano
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #229; model has him #75 — a 154-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: Benardrick McKinney, Tyeler Davison.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Marquel LeeMatt Milano· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marquel Lee

Draftanomics projects Marquel Lee (age 21.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #116 (range #65-#167, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Benardrick McKinney (Franchise), Preston Smith (Franchise), Tyeler Davison (Franchise). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is David Mayo (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 152 spots ahead of the room (board #116 vs consensus #268), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Matt Milano

Draftanomics projects Matt Milano (age 22.7 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #75 (range #33-#117, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Benardrick McKinney (Franchise), Brian Mihalik (Bust), David Mayo (Contributor). Ceiling is Benardrick McKinney (Franchise); floor is Max Valles. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 154 spots ahead of the room (board #75 vs consensus #229), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.