3 prospects · 2017 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects JJ Dielman as a mid-round flyer at #169 (range #152-#186, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 91 spots ahead of the room (board #169 vs consensus #260) — but size the bet for the 78% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Kofi Amichia as a mid-round flyer at #159 (range #145-#173, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. School SP+ 9.8 (AMERICAN ATHLETIC). Strong program among non-Power-5 — the prospect dominated against decent competition. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 619 spots ahead of the room (board #159 vs consensus #778) — but size the bet for the 78% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Kyle Fuller as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #83 (range #62-#104, wide band). Bust probability sits at 22% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jamon Brown, Jeremiah Poutasi, Rob Havenstein. Ceiling is Laken Tomlinson; floor is Jon Feliciano. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 115 spots ahead of the room (board #83 vs consensus #198), and at a 22% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.