2 prospects · 2017 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 27 points lower. Reinforced by 23-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Al-Quadin Muhammad (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #132 (range #118-#146, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 98 spots ahead of the room (board #132 vs consensus #230), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Daeshon Hall (age 21.9 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #155 (range #113-#197, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 48% — elevated. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Frank Clark (Franchise), Shane Ray (Franchise), Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #81 and the model won't take him before #155 — a 74-spot markdown. A 48% bust probability backs the 74-spot markdown.