2 prospects · 2017 draft
Shalom Luani and Rudy Ford project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Shalom Luani (age 22.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #211 (range #178-#244, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Damarious Randall (Franchise), Clayton Geathers (Starter), Ibraheim Campbell (Starter). Ceiling is Damarious Randall (Franchise); floor is Ibraheim Campbell (Starter). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 41 spots ahead of the room (board #211 vs consensus #252), and at a 40% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Rudy Ford (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #247 (range #233-#261, wide band). Bust probability sits at 12% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #134 and the model won't take him before #247 — a 113-spot markdown. The 113-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.