3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Michael Dickson (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #59 (range #42-#76, wide band). Bust probability sits at 11% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 46 spots ahead of the room (board #59 vs consensus #105), and at a 11% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Logan Cooke (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #185 (range #168-#202, wide band). Bust probability sits at 15% — low. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #185 stands alone — and with bust risk at 15%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Johnny Townsend (age 23.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #128 (range #108-#148, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Lac Edwards (Bust), Drew Kaser (Bust), Joe Cardona. Ceiling is Joe Cardona; floor is Lac Edwards (Bust). 4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Lac Edwards, Drew Kaser, Bradley Pinion (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 107 spots ahead of the room (board #128 vs consensus #235), and at a 20% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.