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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (LB)
KY
Kenny Young
LB · UCLA
22.4 yo · — · —
DD
Devante Downs
LB · California
22.5 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Kenny Young over Devante Downs.

Decisive factor: 88-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Kenny Young
Predicted pick
#121
range #80–#162
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Devante Downs
Predicted pick
#209
range #163–#255
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Kenny Young· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Devante Downs· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionKenny Young53
  • AthleticismKenny Young48
  • AgeKenny Young99
  • ConsensusKenny Young4
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Kenny Young50
  • Breakout ageKenny Young50
  • WorkloadKenny Young100
  • RAS × productionKenny Young0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Denzel PerrymanILB · Franchise→ shared byKenny YoungDevante Downs
Kenny Young
  • Denzel Perrymanshared
    ILB · #48
    Franchise
  • Antonio Morrison
    ILB · #125
    Starter
  • Matthew Ioannidis
    DT · #152
    Starter
  • Elandon Roberts
    ILB · #214
    Starter
  • Anthony Chickillo
    EDGE · #212
    Contributor
Devante Downs
  • Denzel Perrymanshared
    ILB · #48
    Franchise
  • Kamu Grugier-Hill
    OLB · #208
    Bust
  • Jonathan Woodard
    EDGE · #226
    TBD
  • Trevor Bates
    LB · #239
    Bust
  • David Mayo
    LB · #169
    Contributor

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Kenny Young
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #337; model has him #121 — a 216-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Denzel Perryman, Antonio Morrison, Matthew Ioannidis (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Devante Downs
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #1042; model has him #209 — a 833-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kamu Grugier-Hill, Trevor Bates. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Kenny YoungDevante Downs· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Kenny Young

Draftanomics projects Kenny Young (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #121 (range #80-#162, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Denzel Perryman (Franchise), Antonio Morrison (Starter), Matthew Ioannidis (Starter). Ceiling is Denzel Perryman (Franchise); floor is Anthony Chickillo (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 216 spots ahead of the room (board #121 vs consensus #337), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Devante Downs

Draftanomics projects Devante Downs (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #209 (range #163-#255, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Denzel Perryman (Franchise), Kamu Grugier-Hill (Bust), Jonathan Woodard. Ceiling is Denzel Perryman (Franchise); floor is Jonathan Woodard. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Kamu Grugier-Hill, Trevor Bates. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 833 spots ahead of the room (board #209 vs consensus #1042), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.