3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jaleel Scott (age 23.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #256 (range #238-#274, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Neal Sterling (Contributor), JJ Nelson (Franchise), Jakeem Grant (Contributor). Ceiling is JJ Nelson (Franchise); floor is Da'Ron Brown. Drafted #132 by BAL in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 24 spots below the room's consensus #232 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects J'Mon Moore (age 22.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #196 (range #165-#227, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Devin Lucien, Chris Moore (Contributor), Demarcus Ayers (Bust). Ceiling is JJ Nelson (Franchise); floor is Devin Lucien. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #136 and the model won't take him before #196 — a 60-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Marquez Valdes-Scantling (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #230 (range #210-#250, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Da'Ron Brown, Neal Sterling (Contributor), Jakeem Grant (Contributor). Ceiling is JJ Nelson (Franchise); floor is Da'Ron Brown. Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a value lean: #230 against a consensus #244 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.