2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: $12M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV. Reinforced by 18-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marquez Valdes-Scantling (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #230 (range #210-#250, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Da'Ron Brown, Neal Sterling (Contributor), Jakeem Grant (Contributor). Ceiling is JJ Nelson (Franchise); floor is Da'Ron Brown. Age 23.5 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a value lean: #230 against a consensus #244 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects Javon Wims (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #224-#272, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: DeAndre Smelter (Bust), Keith Mumphery (Starter), Tony Lippett (Starter). Ceiling is Tony Lippett (Starter); floor is Charone Peake (Contributor). Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #248 sits within 11 spots of the room's #259 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.