3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Damion Ratley (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #232 (range #201-#263, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 16% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: DeAndre Smelter (Bust), Darren Waller (Contributor), Keith Mumphery (Starter). Ceiling is Keith Mumphery (Starter); floor is Darren Waller (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #232 stands alone — and with bust risk at 16%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Ian Thomas (age 21.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #226 (range #193-#259, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 21% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Austin Hooper (Starter), Thomas Duarte (Bust), Malcolm Johnson (Starter). Ceiling is Austin Hooper (Starter); floor is Jerell Adams (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.74s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #117 and the model won't take him before #226 — a 109-spot markdown. The discount is earned — te slow 40 (4.74s) leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Tre'Quan Smith (age 22.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #148 (range #101-#195, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 13% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Chris Moore (Contributor), Tony Lippett (Starter). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Chris Moore (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #100 and the model won't take him before #148 — a 48-spot markdown. The 48-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.