2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 35-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc and $5M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects DeShon Elliott (age 21.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #74 (range #21-#127, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Will Parks (Contributor), Keanu Neal (Starter), Jayron Kearse (Backup). Ceiling is Adrian Amos (Franchise); floor is Jayron Kearse (Backup). Drafted #190 by BAL in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 48 spots ahead of the room (board #74 vs consensus #122), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Kyzir White (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #39 (range #1-#99, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 5% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Will Parks (Contributor), Keanu Neal (Starter), Karl Joseph (Starter). Ceiling is Karl Joseph (Starter); floor is Jayron Kearse (Backup). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 33 spots ahead of the room (board #39 vs consensus #72), and at a 5% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.