3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Courtland Sutton (age 22.5 at draft) as a first-round pick at #24 (range #1-#79, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Mike Thomas (Contributor), Will Fuller (Starter). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #24 sits within 9 spots of the room's #33 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Christian Kirk (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #33 (range #1-#93, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Will Fuller (Starter), Tyler Boyd (Starter), Mike Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #33 sits within 8 spots of the room's #41 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects D.J. Moore (age 21.0 at draft) as a first-round pick at #20 (range #1-#64, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Mike Thomas (Contributor), Kolby Listenbee, Chris Moore (Contributor). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). The call is a value lean: #20 against a consensus #34 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.