2 prospects · 2018 draft
Kerryon Johnson and Derrius Guice project within 8 picks of each other, and neither bust risk nor the historical comps can separate them. Take the one at the position of greater need.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
−0.05 production trajectory; +0.04 boards with him top-100; +0.03 number of boards ranking him
Draftanomics projects Derrius Guice (age 20.9 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #1 (range #1-#44, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ezekiel Elliott (Starter), Derrick Henry (Starter), Alex Collins (Starter). Ceiling is Ezekiel Elliott (Starter); floor is Alex Collins (Starter). Drafted #59 by WAS in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a value lean: #1 against a consensus #21 is a 20-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with missed entire rookie season the tax on that edge.