3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Uchenna Nwosu (age 21.3 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #99 (range #42-#156, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 1% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Su'a Cravens (Bust), Jaylon Smith (Bust), Aaron Wallace (Contributor). Ceiling is Dante Fowler (Starter); floor is Aaron Wallace (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Su'a Cravens, Jaylon Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #99 and the room's #98 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 1% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Harold Landry (age 21.9 at draft) as a first-round pick at #28 (range #1-#84, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Su'a Cravens (Bust), Myles Jack (Starter), Jaylon Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Myles Jack (Starter); floor is Tyler Matakevich (Backup). 4 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Su'a Cravens, Jaylon Smith, Tyler Matakevich (+1 more). The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 13 spots below the room's consensus #15 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Shaquem Griffin (age 22.8 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #134 (range #81-#187, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 39% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: B.J. Goodson (Contributor), Su'a Cravens (Bust), Myles Jack (Starter). Ceiling is Myles Jack (Starter); floor is Tyler Matakevich (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Su'a Cravens, Tyler Matakevich, Jaylon Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #56 and the model won't take him before #134 — a 78-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.