3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Connor Williams as a top-10 pick at #7 (range #1-#43, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jack Conklin, Alex Lewis, Willie Beavers. Ceiling is Jack Conklin; floor is Cole Toner. The call is a value lean: #7 against a consensus #29 is a 22-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Kolton Miller as a Day 2 pick at #62 (range #18-#106, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Jack Conklin, Jason Spriggs, Brandon Shell. Ceiling is Jack Conklin; floor is Cole Toner. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 13 spots below the room's consensus #49 — don't pay sticker price. The 13-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Mike McGlinchey as a first-round pick at #22 (range #1-#69, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Taylor Decker, Jack Conklin, Shon Coleman. Ceiling is Jack Conklin; floor is Kyle Murphy. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #22 and the room's #22 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.