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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2018 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (TE)
IT
Ian Thomas
TE · Indiana
21.9 yo · 6'4" · 259 lb
TC
Tyler Conklin
TE · Central Michigan
22.7 yo · 6'3" · 254 lb
MA
Mark Andrews
TE · Oklahoma
22.6 yo · 6'5" · 256 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Ian Thomas
Predicted pick
#226
range #70–#225
Bust probability
21%
Consensus rank
#117
on 4 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel
Tyler Conklin
Predicted pick
#247
range #91–#246
Bust probability
26%
Consensus rank
#157
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$11Mmodel
Mark Andrews
Predicted pick
#218
range #77–#261
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
#64
on 16 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$26Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Ian Thomas· RB / WR / TE
  • Tyler Conklin· RB / WR / TE
  • Mark Andrews· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionIan Thomas47
  • AthleticismIan Thomas47
  • AgeIan Thomas78
  • ConsensusIan Thomas25
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Ian Thomas50
  • Breakout ageIan Thomas50
  • WorkloadIan Thomas100
  • RAS × productionIan Thomas0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Ian Thomas
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Tyler Conklin
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Mark Andrews
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Ian Thomas
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Tyler Conklin
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Mark Andrews
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Ian ThomasTyler ConklinMark Andrews· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Ian Thomas

−0.03 production trajectory; −0.03 Power-5 production share; −0.03 charting total career snaps

Tyler Conklin

−0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.02 charting gap run block grade; −0.02 scout consensus

Mark Andrews

+0.04 boards with him top-100; −0.04 production trajectory; +0.03 number of boards ranking him