3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Da'Shawn Hand (age 22.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #227 (range #204-#250, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Geneo Grissom (Contributor), Shane Ray (Franchise), Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Starter). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #96 and the model won't take him before #227 — a 131-spot markdown. The 131-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Kylie Fitts (age 23.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #238 (range #206-#270, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Starter), Charles Tapper (Bust), Dadi Nicolas (Bust). Ceiling is Owamagbe Odighizuwa (Starter); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Charles Tapper, Dadi Nicolas, Bronson Kaufusi. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #151 and the model won't take him before #238 — a 87-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Jalyn Holmes (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #236 (range #209-#263, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Geneo Grissom (Contributor), Shane Ray (Franchise), DeForest Buckner (Starter). Ceiling is Shane Ray (Franchise); floor is Geneo Grissom (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #74 and the model won't take him before #236 — a 162-spot markdown. The 162-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.