3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Joel Iyiegbuniwe (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #192 (range #141-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kristjan Sokoli, Preston Smith (Franchise), Cory James (Starter). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Kristjan Sokoli. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 179 spots ahead of the room (board #192 vs consensus #371), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Azeem Victor as a mid-round flyer at #113 (range #72-#154, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 38% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Blake Martinez (Starter), Willie Henry (Bust), Kamalei Correa (Contributor). Ceiling is Maliek Collins (Starter); floor is Aaron Wallace (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 91 spots ahead of the room (board #113 vs consensus #204), and at a 38% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Matthew Adams (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #136 (range #88-#184, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Elandon Roberts (Starter), Matthew Ioannidis (Starter), Nate Orchard (Franchise). Ceiling is Bud Dupree (Franchise); floor is Shaquille Riddick. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 661 spots ahead of the room (board #136 vs consensus #797), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.