3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Joel Iyiegbuniwe (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #192 (range #141-#243, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kristjan Sokoli, Preston Smith (Franchise), Cory James (Starter). Ceiling is Preston Smith (Franchise); floor is Kristjan Sokoli. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 179 spots ahead of the room (board #192 vs consensus #371), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Genard Avery (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #107 (range #76-#138, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Nick Vigil (Contributor), Nick Kwiatkoski (Starter), Carl Nassib (Starter). Ceiling is Carl Nassib (Starter); floor is Nick Vigil (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #80 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Shaun Dion Hamilton (age 22.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #131 (range #114-#148, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Joshua Perry (Contributor), Blake Martinez (Starter), Sheldon Day (Starter). Ceiling is Deion Jones (Starter); floor is Joshua Perry (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #131 sits within 6 spots of the room's #137 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.