3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Avonte Maddox (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #79-#167, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 9% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Bobby McCain (Starter), Eric Rowe (Franchise), Tye Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is D.J. White (Starter). The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #123 stands alone — and with bust risk at 9%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Cornell Armstrong (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #239 (range #214-#264, wide band). Bust probability sits at 27% — manageable. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tye Smith (Bust), LeShaun Sims (Contributor), Tray Walker (Bust). Ceiling is Steven Nelson (Starter); floor is LeShaun Sims (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tye Smith, Tray Walker, D'Joun Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #239 stands alone — and with bust risk at 27%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Kamrin Moore (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #135 (range #133-#137, tight projection). Bust probability sits at 40% — real but not disqualifying. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #135 stands alone — and with bust risk at 40%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.