2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 43-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Josh Sweat (age 21.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #95 (range #69-#121, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Joey Bosa (Starter), Shaq Lawson (Starter), Charles Tapper (Bust). Ceiling is Danielle Hunter (Franchise); floor is Emmanuel Ogbah (Starter). The call is a lean fade: the model sits 28 spots below the room's consensus #66 — don't pay sticker price. The 28-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Sam Hubbard (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #52 (range #30-#74, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Shaq Lawson (Starter), Joey Bosa (Starter), Charles Tapper (Bust). Ceiling is Joey Bosa (Starter); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #52 and the room's #50 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.