3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Marquis Haynes (age 24.4 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #198 (range #165-#231, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Kyler Fackrell (Contributor), Tyler Matakevich (Backup), D.J. Alexander (Bust). Ceiling is Kyle Emanuel (Starter); floor is Tyler Matakevich (Backup). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tyler Matakevich, D.J. Alexander, Kentrell Brothers. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #164 and the model won't take him before #198 — a 34-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Kemoko Turay (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #195 (range #185-#205, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Tyrone Holmes (Starter), Reshard Cliett, Kamu Grugier-Hill (Bust). Ceiling is Jatavis Brown (Starter); floor is Reshard Cliett. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #93 and the model won't take him before #195 — a 102-spot markdown. The 102-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Dorian O'Daniel (age 23.6 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #93 (range #56-#130, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Neiron Ball (Bust), Devante Bond (Bust), Deion Jones (Starter). Ceiling is Jordan Hicks (Franchise); floor is Deion Jones (Starter). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Neiron Ball, Devante Bond, Tony Steward. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #93 against a consensus #112 is a 19-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.