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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2018 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (OLB, DT)
MH
Marquis Haynes
OLB · Mississippi
24.4 yo · — · —
NS
Nathan Shepherd
DT · Fort Hays St.
24.5 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Nathan Shepherd over Marquis Haynes.

Decisive factor: 111-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marquis Haynes
Predicted pick
#198
range #57–#241
Bust probability
15%
Consensus rank
#120
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Nathan Shepherd
Predicted pick
#87
range #40–#205
Bust probability
16%
Consensus rank
#95
on 15 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$8Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marquis Haynes· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Nathan Shepherd· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarquis Haynes53
  • AthleticismMarquis Haynes48
  • AgeMarquis Haynes1
  • ConsensusNathan Shepherd9
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marquis Haynes50
  • Breakout ageMarquis Haynes50
  • WorkloadMarquis Haynes100
  • RAS × productionMarquis Haynes0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Marquis Haynes
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Nathan Shepherd
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marquis Haynes
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Nathan Shepherd
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Marquis HaynesNathan Shepherd· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marquis Haynes

−0.06 age; +0.03 charting run def grade career avg; −0.03 boards with him top-100

Nathan Shepherd

−0.06 age; +0.03 number of boards ranking him; +0.02 HS recruit rating