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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (CB)
DH
Davontae Harris
CB · Illinois St.
23.3 yo · — · —
DC
Dane Cruikshank
CB · Arizona
23.0 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Low confidence
Take Dane Cruikshank over Davontae Harris.

Decisive factor: 47-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Davontae Harris
Predicted pick
#203
range #182–#224
Bust probability· rough estimate
7%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Dane Cruikshank
Predicted pick
#156
range #53–#201
Bust probability· rough estimate
24%
Consensus rank
#144
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Davontae Harris· CB / S
  • Dane Cruikshank· CB / S
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDavontae Harris50
  • AthleticismDavontae Harris47
  • AgeDane Cruikshank42
  • ConsensusDane Cruikshank14
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Davontae Harris50
  • Breakout ageDavontae Harris50
  • WorkloadDavontae Harris100
  • RAS × productionDavontae Harris0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Davontae Harris
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Dane Cruikshank
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Davontae Harris
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #375; model has him #203 — a 172-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Dane Cruikshank
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Snap share
Davontae HarrisDane Cruikshank· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Davontae Harris

Draftanomics projects Davontae Harris (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #182-#224, wide band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 172 spots ahead of the room (board #203 vs consensus #375), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Dane Cruikshank

−0.03 boards with him top-100; +0.02 HS recruit rating; −0.02 age