2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 12-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Davontae Harris (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #203 (range #182-#224, wide band). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 172 spots ahead of the room (board #203 vs consensus #375), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Darius Phillips (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #191 (range #156-#226, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 10% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Craig Mager (Starter), Tray Walker (Bust), LeShaun Sims (Contributor). Ceiling is Craig Mager (Starter); floor is LeShaun Sims (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tray Walker, Tye Smith, Ryan Murphy. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 25 spots below the room's consensus #166 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.