2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 93-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dane Cruikshank (age 23.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #156 (range #116-#196, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Juston Burris (Contributor), Craig Mager (Starter), Prince Charles Iworah (Bust). Ceiling is Craig Mager (Starter); floor is Harlan Miller (Contributor). 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Prince Charles Iworah, Tray Walker. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a value lean: #156 against a consensus #170 is a 14-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.
Draftanomics projects M.J. Stewart (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #63 (range #5-#121, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Artie Burns (Starter), Will Redmond, Harlan Miller (Contributor). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #63 sits within 6 spots of the room's #69 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.