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RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
DE
Duke Ejiofor
EDGE · Wake Forest
23.0 yo · 6'4" · 264 lb
JL
Justin Lawler
EDGE · SMU
23.3 yo · — · —
DJ
Dorance Armstrong Jr.
EDGE · Kansas
20.9 yo · 6'4" · 257 lb

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Duke Ejiofor
Predicted pick
#104
range #79–#129
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#116
on 16 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$4Mmodel
Justin Lawler
Predicted pick
#194
range #170–#218
Bust probability
14%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Dorance Armstrong Jr.
Predicted pick
#77
range #25–#129
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#137
on 15 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · Day 2
2nd-deal AAV
$9Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Duke Ejiofor· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Justin Lawler· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Dorance Armstrong Jr.· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionDuke Ejiofor53
  • AthleticismDuke Ejiofor48
  • AgeDorance Armstrong Jr.85
  • ConsensusDuke Ejiofor7
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Duke Ejiofor50
  • Breakout ageDuke Ejiofor50
  • WorkloadDuke Ejiofor100
  • RAS × productionDuke Ejiofor0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Jihad WardEDGE · Starter→ shared byDuke EjioforDorance Armstrong Jr.
  • Ronald BlairEDGE · Starter→ shared byDuke EjioforJustin Lawler
Duke Ejiofor
  • Carl Nassib
    EDGE · #65
    Starter
  • Kamalei Correa
    EDGE · #42
    Contributor
  • Jihad Wardshared
    EDGE · #44
    Starter
  • Nate Orchard
    EDGE · #51
    Franchise
  • Ronald Blairshared
    EDGE · #142
    Starter
Justin Lawler
  • Ryan Russell
    EDGE · #163
    Franchise
  • Ronald Blairshared
    EDGE · #142
    Starter
  • Marcus Hardison
    EDGE · #135
    TBD
  • Christian Ringo
    EDGE · #210
    Starter
  • Martin Ifedi
    EDGE · #227
    TBD
Dorance Armstrong Jr.
  • Jonathan Woodard
    EDGE · #226
    TBD
  • Yannick Ngakoue
    EDGE · #69
    Starter
  • Brian Mihalik
    EDGE · #237
    Bust
  • Dean Lowry
    EDGE · #137
    Starter
  • Jihad Wardshared
    EDGE · #44
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Duke Ejiofor
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    4 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Carl Nassib, Jihad Ward, Nate Orchard (+1 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Justin Lawler
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #239; model has him #194 — a 45-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Ryan Russell, Ronald Blair, Christian Ringo. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.
Dorance Armstrong Jr.
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Yannick Ngakoue, Dean Lowry, Jihad Ward. The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Snap share
Duke EjioforJustin LawlerDorance Armstrong Jr.· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Duke Ejiofor

Draftanomics projects Duke Ejiofor (age 23.0 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #104 (range #79-#129, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Carl Nassib (Starter), Kamalei Correa (Contributor), Jihad Ward (Starter). Ceiling is Nate Orchard (Franchise); floor is Kamalei Correa (Contributor). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 19 spots below the room's consensus #85 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Justin Lawler

Draftanomics projects Justin Lawler (age 23.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #194 (range #170-#218, wide band). Bust probability sits at 14% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Ryan Russell (Franchise), Ronald Blair (Starter), Marcus Hardison. Ceiling is Ryan Russell (Franchise); floor is Martin Ifedi. Age 23.3 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 45 spots ahead of the room (board #194 vs consensus #239), and at a 14% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Dorance Armstrong Jr.

Draftanomics projects Dorance Armstrong Jr. (age 20.9 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #77 (range #25-#129, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jonathan Woodard, Yannick Ngakoue (Starter), Brian Mihalik (Bust). Ceiling is Jihad Ward (Starter); floor is Jonathan Woodard. The call is a value lean: #77 against a consensus #94 is a 17-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.