3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Dylan Cantrell (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #255 (range #238-#272, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Kenny Bell, Da'Ron Brown, Geremy Davis (Starter). Ceiling is Geremy Davis (Starter); floor is Da'Ron Brown. Drafted #191 by LAC in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #255 sits within 5 spots of the room's #250 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects DaeSean Hamilton (age 23.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #150 (range #111-#189, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Keith Mumphery (Starter), DeAndre Smelter (Bust), DeVante Parker (Franchise). Ceiling is DeVante Parker (Franchise); floor is Kenny Bell. Age 23.1 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #98 and the model won't take him before #150 — a 52-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Javon Wims (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #248 (range #224-#272, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: DeAndre Smelter (Bust), Keith Mumphery (Starter), Tony Lippett (Starter). Ceiling is Tony Lippett (Starter); floor is Charone Peake (Contributor). Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #248 sits within 11 spots of the room's #259 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.