3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Russell Gage (age 22.3 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #184 (range #159-#209, wide band). Bust probability sits at 20% — manageable. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Demarcus Robinson (Contributor), Evan Spencer (Bust), Cody Core (Contributor). Ceiling is Demarcus Robinson (Contributor); floor is Kenny Lawler. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a value lean: #184 against a consensus #202 is a 18-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, and the wide band around the 20% bust number says size it modestly.
Draftanomics projects Deon Cain (age 21.7 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #179 (range #127-#231, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Cody Core (Contributor), Devin Funchess (Franchise). Ceiling is Devin Funchess (Franchise); floor is Cody Core (Contributor). Drafted #185 by IND in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #101 and the model won't take him before #179 — a 78-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Dante Pettis (age 22.5 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #129 (range #79-#179, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 2 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Will Fuller (Starter), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter), Demarcus Robinson (Contributor). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #76 and the model won't take him before #129 — a 53-spot markdown. The 53-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.