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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (RB)
BS
Boston Scott
RB · Louisiana Tech
23.0 yo · — · —
TC
Trenton Cannon
RB · Virginia St.
23.8 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Trenton Cannon over Boston Scott.

Decisive factor: 14-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Boston Scott
Predicted pick
#221
range #194–#248
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Trenton Cannon
Predicted pick
#207
range #186–#228
Bust probability
0%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Boston Scott· RB / WR / TE
  • Trenton Cannon· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBoston Scott47
  • AthleticismBoston Scott47
  • AgeBoston Scott58
  • ConsensusBoston Scott5
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Boston Scott50
  • Breakout ageBoston Scott50
  • WorkloadBoston Scott100
  • RAS × productionBoston Scott0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Boston Scott
  • Josh Robinson
    RB · #205
    Bust
  • David Cobb
    RB · #138
    Bust
  • DeAndre Washington
    RB · #143
    Starter
  • Duke Johnson
    RB · #77
    Franchise
  • Wendell Smallwood
    RB · #153
    Starter
Trenton Cannon
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Boston Scott
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #583; model has him #221 — a 362-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
  • Promising comp group
    3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes hit Starter-or-better: DeAndre Washington, Duke Johnson, Wendell Smallwood.
Trenton Cannon
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Consensus skeptic
    1 board place him at mean rank #507; model has him #207 — a 300-spot gap. When boards fade a player this hard, the model is usually the one missing something.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Snap share
Boston ScottTrenton Cannon· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Boston Scott

Draftanomics projects Boston Scott (age 23.0 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #221 (range #194-#248, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Josh Robinson (Bust), David Cobb (Bust), DeAndre Washington (Starter). Ceiling is Duke Johnson (Franchise); floor is Wendell Smallwood (Starter). Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 362 spots ahead of the room (board #221 vs consensus #583), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.

Trenton Cannon

Draftanomics projects Trenton Cannon (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #186-#228, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 300 spots ahead of the room (board #207 vs consensus #507), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.