2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 40-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $5M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Matt Pryor as a Day 3 dart throw at #204 (range #187-#221, wide band). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. Drafted #206 by PHI in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #204 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Joseph Noteboom as a mid-round flyer at #164 (range #117-#211, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 6% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Andrus Peat, Tayo Fabuluje, D.J. Humphries. Ceiling is Andrus Peat; floor is Tayo Fabuluje. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #164 stands alone — and with bust risk at 6%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.