2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: a bust risk 54 points lower. Reinforced by 37-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects David Williams (age 23.9 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #244 (range #209-#279, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 79% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Johnson (Franchise), Zac Brooks, Devontae Booker (Starter). Ceiling is David Johnson (Franchise); floor is Zac Brooks. Age 23.9 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #244 stands alone — and with bust risk at 79%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Trenton Cannon (age 23.8 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #207 (range #186-#228, wide band). Bust probability sits at 25% — manageable. Age 23.8 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #207 stands alone — and with bust risk at 25%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.