2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 121-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 78 points lower and $18M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Rod Taylor as a Day 3 dart throw at #186 (range #172-#200, wide band). Bust probability sits at 78% — scary. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 254 spots ahead of the room (board #186 vs consensus #440) — but size the bet for the 78% bust probability; this is a price edge, not a safety edge.
Draftanomics projects Wyatt Teller as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #65 (range #18-#112, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: A.J. Cann, Spencer Drango, Daryl Williams. Ceiling is Laken Tomlinson; floor is Donavon Clark. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 32 spots ahead of the room (board #65 vs consensus #97), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.