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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
  2. Prospects/
  3. 2018 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (DT)
JJ
Justin Jones
DT · North Carolina St.
21.7 yo · — · —
RM
R.J. McIntosh
DT · Miami (FL)
21.9 yo · 6'4" · 286 lb
BH
B.J. Hill
DT · North Carolina St.
23.0 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Justin Jones
Predicted pick
#142
range #68–#240
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#162
on 1 board
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel
R.J. McIntosh
Predicted pick
#117
range #37–#225
Bust probability
44%
Consensus rank
#168
on 15 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
B.J. Hill
Predicted pick
#81
range #25–#202
Bust probability
20%
Consensus rank
#125
on 15 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$15Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Justin Jones· EDGE / DL / LB
  • R.J. McIntosh· EDGE / DL / LB
  • B.J. Hill· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionR.J. McIntosh53
  • AthleticismJustin Jones48
  • AgeJustin Jones88
  • ConsensusJustin Jones20
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Justin Jones50
  • Breakout ageJustin Jones50
  • WorkloadJustin Jones100
  • RAS × productionJustin Jones0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Justin Jones
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
R.J. McIntosh
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
B.J. Hill
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Justin Jones
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
R.J. McIntosh
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
B.J. Hill
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Justin JonesR.J. McIntoshB.J. Hill· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Justin Jones

+0.03 charting def grade mean; +0.03 age; −0.02 boards with him top-100

R.J. McIntosh

−0.04 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; +0.03 HS recruit rating; +0.02 age

B.J. Hill

+0.03 number of boards ranking him; +0.02 HS recruit rating; +0.02 lowest board ranking