2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 45-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Chase Edmonds (age 22.0 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #159 (range #129-#189, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Wendell Smallwood (Starter), Darius Jackson. Ceiling is Duke Johnson (Franchise); floor is Darius Jackson. The call is a hold: no public board ranks him, so the model's #159 stands alone — and with bust risk at 0%, let the room catch up before paying a premium.
Draftanomics projects Nyheim Hines (age 21.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #114 (range #98-#130, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: David Cobb (Bust), Wendell Smallwood (Starter), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is Jordan Howard (Starter); floor is Keenan Reynolds. No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 16 spots below the room's consensus #98 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — comp group has bust risk leads the case against.