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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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  3. 2018 board/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
AT
Auden Tate
WR · Florida St.
21.2 yo · 6'5" · 228 lb
BB
Braxton Berrios
WR · Miami (FL)
22.6 yo · 5'9" · 184 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Auden Tate over Braxton Berrios.

Decisive factor: 104-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 65 points lower and a stronger historical comp arc.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Auden Tate
Predicted pick
#146
range #97–#195
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#113
on 5 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Braxton Berrios
Predicted pick
#250
range #217–#283
Bust probability
65%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$7Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Auden Tate· RB / WR / TE
  • Braxton Berrios· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionBraxton Berrios47
  • AthleticismAuden Tate47
  • AgeAuden Tate83
  • ConsensusAuden Tate10
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Auden Tate50
  • Breakout ageAuden Tate50
  • WorkloadAuden Tate100
  • RAS × productionAuden Tate0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Kenny LawlerWR · TBD→ shared byAuden TateBraxton Berrios
  • Pharoh CooperWR · Contributor→ shared byAuden TateBraxton Berrios
  • Aaron BurbridgeWR · Bust→ shared byAuden TateBraxton Berrios
Auden Tate
  • Kenny Lawlershared
    WR · #243
    TBD
  • Cody Core
    WR · #199
    Contributor
  • Dorial Green-Beckham
    WR · #40
    Starter
  • Pharoh Coopershared
    WR · #117
    Contributor
  • Aaron Burbridgeshared
    WR · #213
    Bust
Braxton Berrios
  • Pharoh Coopershared
    WR · #117
    Contributor
  • Tajae Sharpe
    WR · #140
    Bust
  • Kenny Lawlershared
    WR · #243
    TBD
  • Demarcus Ayers
    WR · #229
    Bust
  • Aaron Burbridgeshared
    WR · #213
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Auden Tate
Risks
  • WR slow 40 (4.68s)
    40-yard dash of 4.68s — below-average separation speed for the position.
  • Comp group has bust risk
    1 of 2 closest comps with NFL outcomes ended up backups or busts: Aaron Burbridge. Mixed signal from history.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    6 boards have him at mean rank #98; model has him #146 — a 48-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Braxton Berrios
Risks
  • Missed entire rookie season
    Drafted #210 by NWE in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have.
  • Comp group bust rate
    3 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tajae Sharpe, Demarcus Ayers, Aaron Burbridge. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    1 board have him at mean rank #220; model has him #250 — a 30-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Snap share
Auden TateBraxton Berrios· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Auden Tate

Draftanomics projects Auden Tate (age 21.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #146 (range #97-#195, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is mixed: 1 starters-or-better vs 1 backups-or-busts among the 2 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: Kenny Lawler, Cody Core (Contributor), Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter). Ceiling is Dorial Green-Beckham (Starter); floor is Kenny Lawler. 40-yard dash of 4.68s — below-average separation speed for the position. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #98 and the model won't take him before #146 — a 48-spot markdown. The discount is earned — wr slow 40 (4.68s) leads the case against.

Braxton Berrios

Draftanomics projects Braxton Berrios (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #250 (range #217-#283, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Pharoh Cooper (Contributor), Tajae Sharpe (Bust), Kenny Lawler. Ceiling is Pharoh Cooper (Contributor); floor is Kenny Lawler. Drafted #210 by NWE in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #220 and the model won't take him before #250 — a 30-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.