2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 96-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by $20M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jaire Alexander (age 21.2 at draft) as a first-round pick at #27 (range #1-#87, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Jalen Ramsey (Starter), Eli Apple (Starter), Zack Sanchez (Bust). Ceiling is Jalen Ramsey (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). 3 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Zack Sanchez, Maurice Canady, Kalan Reed. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #27 sits within 6 spots of the room's #21 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Avonte Maddox (age 22.1 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #123 (range #79-#167, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Bobby McCain (Starter), Eric Rowe (Franchise), Tye Smith (Bust). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is D.J. White (Starter). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #123 sits within 8 spots of the room's #131 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.