3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Jamarco Jones as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #102 (range #52-#152, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: John Theus, Jerald Hawkins, Ronnie Stanley. Ceiling is Ronnie Stanley; floor is Kyle Murphy. Drafted #168 by SEA in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a lean fade: the model sits 20 spots below the room's consensus #82 — don't pay sticker price. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.
Draftanomics projects Orlando Brown Jr. as a Day 2 pick at #47 (range #9-#85, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Laremy Tunsil, Jerald Hawkins, Ronnie Stanley. Ceiling is Ronnie Stanley; floor is Caleb Benenoch. The call is a value lean: #47 against a consensus #59 is a 12-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Will Clapp as a mid-round flyer at #174 (range #129-#219, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Austin Blythe, Graham Glasgow, Hroniss Grasu. Ceiling is Hroniss Grasu; floor is Austin Blythe. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #134 and the model won't take him before #174 — a 40-spot markdown. The 40-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.