2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 17-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Duke Dawson (age 22.5 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #178 (range #136-#220, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 37% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Quandre Diggs (Franchise), Blake Countess (Contributor), Tevin Mitchel. Ceiling is Quandre Diggs (Franchise); floor is Blake Countess (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #92 and the model won't take him before #178 — a 86-spot markdown. The 86-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Rashaan Gaulden (age 23.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #161 (range #106-#216, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 37% — real but not disqualifying. The comp set is mixed: 2 starters-or-better vs 2 backups-or-busts among the 4 comps with known outcomes. Closest comps: William Jackson III (Bust), Kendall Fuller (Starter), Prince Charles Iworah (Bust). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Juston Burris (Contributor). 40-yard dash of 4.61s — historically corners above 4.55s rarely become NFL starters. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #81 and the model won't take him before #161 — a 80-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.