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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
MA
Marcell Ateman
WR · Oklahoma St.
23.6 yo · 6'4" · 216 lb
CR
Calvin Ridley
WR · Alabama
23.4 yo · 6'0" · 189 lb
Tiebreaker
High confidence
Take Calvin Ridley over Marcell Ateman.

Decisive factor: 232-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 57 points lower, $25M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV and a stronger historical comp arc.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Marcell Ateman
Predicted pick
#241
range #201–#281
Bust probability
57%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#66
on 2 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$2Mmodel
Calvin Ridley
Predicted pick
#9
range #1–#17
Bust probability
0%
0%0/5 comps
Consensus rank
#19
on 27 boards
Career arc
Starter
tier · 1st Round
2nd-deal AAV
$27Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Marcell Ateman· RB / WR / TE
  • Calvin Ridley· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionMarcell Ateman47
  • AthleticismMarcell Ateman47
  • AgeMarcell Ateman37
  • ConsensusCalvin Ridley100
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Marcell Ateman50
  • Breakout ageMarcell Ateman50
  • WorkloadMarcell Ateman100
  • RAS × productionMarcell Ateman0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Sterling ShepardWR · Starter→ shared byMarcell AtemanCalvin Ridley
Marcell Ateman
  • DeAndre Smelter
    WR · #132
    Bust
  • Sterling Shepardshared
    WR · #40
    Starter
  • Chris Moore
    WR · #107
    Contributor
  • Jordan Payton
    WR · #154
    Bust
  • Devin Lucien
    WR · #225
    TBD
Calvin Ridley
  • Michael Thomas
    WR · #47
    Starter
  • Laquon Treadwell
    WR · #23
    Starter
  • Will Fuller
    WR · #21
    Starter
  • Sterling Shepardshared
    WR · #40
    Starter
  • Tyler Boyd
    WR · #55
    Starter

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Marcell Ateman
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.6 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: DeAndre Smelter, Jordan Payton. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #103; model has him #241 — a 138-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
Calvin Ridley
Risks
  • Older prospect
    Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed.
Opportunities
  • Strong comp group
    5 of 5 closest comps with NFL outcomes became Starters or Franchise players: Michael Thomas, Laquon Treadwell, Will Fuller (+2 more). The historical neighborhood overwhelmingly produced NFL contributors.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Y8Snap share
Marcell AtemanCalvin Ridley· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Marcell Ateman

Draftanomics projects Marcell Ateman (age 23.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #241 (range #201-#281, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 57% — elevated. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: DeAndre Smelter (Bust), Sterling Shepard (Starter), Chris Moore (Contributor). Ceiling is Sterling Shepard (Starter); floor is Devin Lucien. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: DeAndre Smelter, Jordan Payton. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #103 and the model won't take him before #241 — a 138-spot markdown. The discount is earned — older prospect leads the case against.

Calvin Ridley

Draftanomics projects Calvin Ridley (age 23.4 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #9 (range #1-#17, moderate band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 5 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Michael Thomas (Starter), Laquon Treadwell (Starter), Will Fuller (Starter). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Tyler Boyd (Starter). Age 23.4 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a value lean: #9 against a consensus #24 is a 15-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early, with older prospect the tax on that edge.