2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 91-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a bust risk 12 points lower and $7M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Michael Gallup (age 22.1 at draft) as a third-round / early Day 3 pick at #69 (range #29-#109, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 7% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Jaelen Strong (Franchise), Rashard Higgins (Starter). Ceiling is Jaelen Strong (Franchise); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 69 spots ahead of the room (board #69 vs consensus #138), and at a 7% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Cedrick Wilson Jr. (age 22.4 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #160 (range #103-#217, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 19% — manageable. The comp set is strong: 3 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Daniel Braverman (Bust), Rashard Higgins (Starter), Jaelen Strong (Franchise). Ceiling is Nelson Agholor (Franchise); floor is Rashard Higgins (Starter). Drafted #208 by DAL in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #160 and the room's #161 land on the same answer — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 19% bust probability break ties on draft day.