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Honest NFL Draft analytics. The model's receipts against actual NFL teams live on the track record.

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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
  1. Draftanomics/
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

3 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (EDGE)
CT
Chad Thomas
EDGE · Miami (FL)
22.5 yo · 6'6" · 281 lb
AB
Andrew Brown
EDGE · Virginia
22.3 yo · 6'4" · 296 lb
ZS
Zach Sieler
EDGE · Ferris St.
22.6 yo · — · —

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Chad Thomas
Predicted pick
#224
range #83–#267
Bust probability
78%
Consensus rank
#127
on 3 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$6Mmodel
Andrew Brown
Predicted pick
#235
range #79–#234
Bust probability
78%
Consensus rank
#88
on 5 boards
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
Zach Sieler
Predicted pick
#183
range #126–#276
Bust probability
22%
Consensus rank
—
no boards yet
Career arc
arrives after the combineThe forecast needs his measurables first.
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Chad Thomas· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Andrew Brown· EDGE / DL / LB
  • Zach Sieler· EDGE / DL / LB
Axis leaders
  • ProductionChad Thomas53
  • AthleticismChad Thomas48
  • AgeAndrew Brown76
  • ConsensusAndrew Brown10
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Chad Thomas50
  • Breakout ageChad Thomas50
  • WorkloadChad Thomas100
  • RAS × productionChad Thomas0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

No shared comps in the top five. Each prospect has a distinct historical profile.
Chad Thomas
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Andrew Brown
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.
Zach Sieler
  • comps arrive after the combineBefore the combine there isn't enough measured data to match him confidently against past players. Comparisons draw on recent NFL careers (2021–2024) and fill in once combine numbers and game-by-game stats land.

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Chad Thomas
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Andrew Brown
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.
Zach Sieler
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
No standout upside flags.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Snap share
Chad ThomasAndrew BrownZach Sieler· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Chad Thomas

−0.05 HS recruit rating; −0.02 boards with him top-100; −0.02 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg

Andrew Brown

−0.06 HS recruit rating; −0.03 charting: average depth of target allowed, career avg; −0.02 boards with him top-100

Zach Sieler

−0.03 boards with him top-100; −0.03 conference strength; +0.02 HS recruit rating