3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Mason Rudolph (age 22.8 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #55 (range #1-#109, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jared Goff (Starter), Brandon Allen, Jameis Winston (Franchise). Ceiling is Jameis Winston (Franchise); floor is Brandon Allen. Drafted #76 by PIT in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #55 sits within 2 spots of the room's #57 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 65% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects Lamar Jackson (age 21.3 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #60 (range #19-#101, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 5 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Jared Goff (Starter), Paxton Lynch (Starter), Dak Prescott (Starter). Ceiling is Jared Goff (Starter); floor is Kevin Hogan (Starter). No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #29 and the model won't take him before #60 — a 31-spot markdown. The 31-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Baker Mayfield (age 23.0 at draft) as a top-10 pick at #3 (range #1-#60, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kevin Hogan (Starter), Paxton Lynch (Starter), Brandon Allen. Ceiling is Marcus Mariota (Franchise); floor is Brandon Allen. Age 23.0 at draft. Slightly older than the cohort median (~22.5); upside ceiling is trimmed. The call is a hold at slot: the model's #3 sits within 12 spots of the room's #15 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.