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Data + sources
RAS by Kent Lee Platte·Consensus Big Board (Arif Hasan)·nflverse·PFR·CFBD·All sources & credits·Methodology
Career-value model, live
Privacy·Terms·Press ⌘K to search·Draftanomics2026
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Side-by-side comparison

Backtest

2 prospects · 2018 draft

Each spoke: percentile within the prospect's own position (WR)
AC
Antonio Callaway
WR · Florida
21.3 yo · 5'11" · 200 lb
DC
DJ Chark
WR · LSU
21.6 yo · — · —
Tiebreaker
Medium confidence
Take Antonio Callaway over DJ Chark.

Decisive factor: a stronger historical comp arc. Reinforced by 17-pick gap on Draftanomics projection.

Headline metrics

The four numbers a GM checks first.

Antonio Callaway
Predicted pick
#163
range #119–#207
Bust probability
0%
0%0/4 comps
Consensus rank
#92
on 2 boards
Career arc
Contributor
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$3Mmodel
DJ Chark
Predicted pick
#180
range #129–#231
Bust probability
0%
0%0/3 comps
Consensus rank
#85
on 17 boards
Career arc
Bust
tier · Day 3
2nd-deal AAV
$10Mmodel

Feature radar

Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.

ProductionAthleticismAgeConsensusPer-play impact (PPA)Breakout ageWorkloadRAS × production
Prospects
  • Antonio Callaway· RB / WR / TE
  • DJ Chark· RB / WR / TE
Axis leaders
  • ProductionAntonio Callaway47
  • AthleticismAntonio Callaway100
  • AgeAntonio Callaway93
  • ConsensusAntonio Callaway9
  • Per-play impact (PPA)Antonio Callaway50
  • Breakout ageAntonio Callaway50
  • WorkloadAntonio Callaway100
  • RAS × productionAntonio Callaway0

Comp overlap

Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.

Shared comps
  • Kolby ListenbeeWR · TBD→ shared byAntonio CallawayDJ Chark
  • Will FullerWR · Starter→ shared byAntonio CallawayDJ Chark
Antonio Callaway
  • Kolby Listenbeeshared
    WR · #192
    TBD
  • Demarcus Robinson
    WR · #126
    Contributor
  • Mike Thomas
    WR · #206
    Contributor
  • Chris Moore
    WR · #107
    Contributor
  • Will Fullershared
    WR · #21
    Starter
DJ Chark
  • Will Fullershared
    WR · #21
    Starter
  • Jordan Payton
    WR · #154
    Bust
  • Kolby Listenbeeshared
    WR · #192
    TBD
  • Kenny Lawler
    WR · #243
    TBD
  • Aaron Burbridge
    WR · #213
    Bust

Risk and opportunity flags

Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.

Antonio Callaway
Risks
No major risks flagged.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    3 boards have him at mean rank #89; model has him #163 — a 74-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.
DJ Chark
Risks
  • No athletic testing
    No Combine drills or Pro Day numbers on file while most of the class has tested — the athletic part of the grade is unmeasured.
  • Comp group bust rate
    2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Payton, Aaron Burbridge. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous.
Opportunities
  • Consensus says higher
    18 boards have him at mean rank #70; model has him #180 — a 110-spot fade. Analysts converging this much above the model is a tell that the model is undervaluing him.

Career trajectory forecast

Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.

0%25%50%75%100%Y1Y2Y3Y4Y5Y6Y7Snap share
Antonio CallawayDJ Chark· solid = actuals, dashed = forecast

Verdict

The model's plain-English read.

Antonio Callaway

Draftanomics projects Antonio Callaway (age 21.3 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #163 (range #119-#207, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set leans young — most of his closest comps haven't played enough NFL snaps yet to be confidently graded. Closest comps: Kolby Listenbee, Demarcus Robinson (Contributor), Mike Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #89 and the model won't take him before #163 — a 74-spot markdown. The 74-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.

DJ Chark

Draftanomics projects DJ Chark (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #180 (range #129-#231, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Will Fuller (Starter), Jordan Payton (Bust), Kolby Listenbee. Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Kenny Lawler. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Payton, Aaron Burbridge. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #180 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.