2 prospects · 2018 draft
Decisive factor: 147-pick gap on Draftanomics projection. Reinforced by a stronger historical comp arc and $14M/yr more in projected second-deal AAV.
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Christian Kirk (age 21.4 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #33 (range #1-#93, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Will Fuller (Starter), Tyler Boyd (Starter), Mike Thomas (Contributor). Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Mike Thomas (Contributor). The call is a hold at slot: the model's #33 sits within 8 spots of the room's #41 — no market edge to chase, so take him where he sits, and let the 0% bust probability break ties on draft day.
Draftanomics projects DJ Chark (age 21.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #180 (range #129-#231, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Will Fuller (Starter), Jordan Payton (Bust), Kolby Listenbee. Ceiling is Will Fuller (Starter); floor is Kenny Lawler. 2 of 3 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Jordan Payton, Aaron Burbridge. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #70 and the model won't take him before #180 — a 110-spot markdown. The discount is earned — comp group bust rate leads the case against.