3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Isaac Yiadom (age 22.2 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #120 (range #65-#175, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 2 of 3 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Artie Burns (Starter), Harlan Miller (Contributor), Kendall Fuller (Starter). Ceiling is Artie Burns (Starter); floor is Kalan Reed (Backup). The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #86 and the model won't take him before #120 — a 34-spot markdown. The 34-spot markdown rests on thin verified signal rather than a named flaw — the model hasn't seen enough yet to match the room's conviction.
Draftanomics projects Cornell Armstrong (age 22.6 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #239 (range #214-#264, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is dangerous: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes washed out as backups or busts. Closest comps: Tye Smith (Bust), LeShaun Sims (Contributor), Tray Walker (Bust). Ceiling is Steven Nelson (Starter); floor is LeShaun Sims (Contributor). 3 of 4 closest comps with NFL outcomes washed out: Tye Smith, Tray Walker, D'Joun Smith. The neighborhood in feature space is dangerous. The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 754 spots ahead of the room (board #239 vs consensus #993), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Greg Stroman (age 22.1 at draft) as a Day 3 dart throw at #199 (range #167-#231, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Daryl Worley (Starter), Rashard Robinson (Starter), LeShaun Sims (Contributor). Ceiling is Marcus Peters (Franchise); floor is LeShaun Sims (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 175 spots ahead of the room (board #199 vs consensus #374), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.