3 prospects · 2018 draft
The four numbers a GM checks first.
Each axis is the prospect's percentile among prospects at his position (0–100). Bigger shape = stronger across the board.
Top five historical comps per prospect. Shared comps highlighted.
Top three concerns and top two upside signals from the model.
Projected share of his team's snaps across the first four NFL seasons. Solid = seasons already played, dashed = the forecast.
The model's plain-English read.
Draftanomics projects Nick Chubb (age 22.3 at draft) as a first-round pick at #15 (range #1-#47, wide band). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 4 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: C.J. Prosise (Starter), Derrick Henry (Starter), Ezekiel Elliott (Starter). Ceiling is Ezekiel Elliott (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). The call is a value lean: #15 against a consensus #39 is a 24-spot edge — enough to move him up the queue, not enough to reach a round early.
Draftanomics projects Royce Freeman (age 22.2 at draft) as a Day 2 pick at #37 (range #6-#68, very wide band — too little on him yet to project tightly). Bust probability sits at 0% — low. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Mike Davis (Starter), C.J. Prosise (Starter), Josh Robinson (Bust). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). The call is a conviction buy: the model has him 45 spots ahead of the room (board #37 vs consensus #82), and at a 0% bust probability the edge is worth paying for.
Draftanomics projects Bo Scarbrough (age 21.6 at draft) as a mid-round flyer at #125 (range #104-#146, wide band). Bust probability sits at 65% — scary. The comp set is strong: 3 of 4 closest comps with known NFL outcomes became starters or better. Closest comps: Kenyan Drake (Contributor), C.J. Prosise (Starter), Karlos Williams (Bust). Ceiling is C.J. Prosise (Starter); floor is Kenyan Drake (Contributor). Drafted #236 by DAL in 2018 but recorded ZERO regular-season NFL snaps. Year-1 absence is one of the strongest single-signal bust predictors we have. The call is a genuine fade: the room's consensus prices him around #94 and the model won't take him before #125 — a 32-spot markdown. The discount is earned — missed entire rookie season leads the case against.